Fragility in the World 2020. Fragile States Index. The thought experiment that is the basis for this article highlights the significant possibility that Israels strategic environment will change in dynamic ways: Following this exercise, the next stage in researching the future of Israels strategic balance could include examining how Israels possible domestic trajectories could impact its view of these scenarios as well as its ability to advance its interests in light of them. During this time, Iran gravitates away from Europe and toward the orbits of Russia and China. Radical Islamic terror, which rears its head in the West Bank following the war with Hezbollah and regime change in Jordan, compels Israel to re-occupy that territory and dismantle the PA. Ironically, it is with Hamas in Gaza that Israel is able to reach an interim agreement that includes investments in and development of Gaza supported by the Qatar-Turkey axis. At Irans urging, Hezbollah agrees to Lebanons settling of the maritime boundary dispute with Israel in order to develop the Lebanese gas fields though the group maintains its hold on political power and arms. This could be the result of the rising importance of factors that are today considered marginal, or chain reactions resulting from game changers. The scenarios are intentionally replete with details in order to provide greater texture and encourage lively conversation and debate about the future; they are intended to both reflect and to test reality. Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, and Terry Collins. In this scenario, reduced U.S. pressure on Iran does not eliminate the possibility of regime change, but the new regime may not enter the Western orbit or forfeit hegemonic and nuclear ambitions if doing so has not or cannot deliver considerable improvements in Iranians living conditions. No one can know the future, and it is misleading to pretend to.34 Or as the late political scientist Herman Kahn of the RAND Corporation put it succinctly, The most likely future isnt.35, Climate change will likely intensify water scarcity in an already water-poor region, bring food shortages, spur refugee crises, and possibly make some areas in the Arab Gulf uninhabitable by 2050.. This information should put traders at ease, but when purchasing stocks, it is important not just to focus on what stocks should be purchased, but how to choose a good broker. Michael Singh. Israel is back on the brink Since the start of the crisis in early 2020, economic institutions have frequently updated their forecasts based on projected energy use and the global economic recovery.19 Political, military, and social aspects of regional dynamics in the Middle East remain volatile. GDP (PPP): $428.5 billion 3.6% 5-year compound annual growth $45,750 per capita Unemployment: 4.3% Inflation (CPI): 1.5% Public Debt: 68.0% Israel's economic freedom score is 68.9, making its. Jerusalem: Falk Project for Economic Research in Israel, 1960. As coalition ploughs ahead with plans to shackle judiciary and uncertainty sweeps local market, individuals and . Then, on the basis of the first two sections, four scenarios elaborate some distinctly different pathways that the Middle East might take to 2030. They are intended to highlight the reality that over the course of the next decade Israels strategic environment could undergo fundamental changes. However, Q4's figure was flattered by a one-off jump in vehicle sales, likely ahead of a tax hike on electric vehicles in . The newly crowned King Khaled seeks to change the kingdoms priorities by reducing its regional involvement and focusing the bulk of its resources on domestic modernization. Gen. Meanwhile, Jonathan Katz, the chief economist at Leader Capital Markets, announced that there, Latest updates put the annual inflation to be. The U.S. and the EU are not involved in the process. Israel is a staunch supporter of this process, but as a condition for its implementation had to agree to end its airstrikes in Syria. 12. Only 7 percent of local energy production last year came from alternative sources, mainly solar, and Israel's future targets are modest compared to Europe's: The government is aiming for just 30 percent of all energy to come from renewables by the end of the decade. The Abraham Accords do not constitute an irreversible change in the dynamics between Israel and Arab countries or entirely disconnect these relations from the Palestinian issue. What is the future of Israel-Morocco economic ties? The residual U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf are meant to blunt Iranian, Chinese, and Russian influence. has released a list of reputable online stock brokers to go with in 2022, but there are also other options that can be utilized as long as investors do their due diligence. 10. The further one seeks to gaze into the future, the less useful forecast techniques become. The use and abuse of scenarios. McKinsey & Company. Water Scarcity Clock. Israel strikes thousands of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, but suffers significant damage to its own infrastructure from precision missile strikes. 6. 37. 32. 2) Socio-economic stability in MENA countries is strongly correlated with (e) demographic pressures, societal and (f) economic prospects, (g) environmental problems, and (h) technological change. Development of scenarios is only a starting point for strategic planning, and the latter issue is not dealt with in this article. He will likely seek to prioritize the Iranian and northern arenas over the Palestinian arenas - provided the domestic political situation allows him to do so. He served on Israels National Security Council in the Prime Ministers Office, coordinating the work on Iran and the Gulf under four National Security Advisers and three Prime Ministers. Avi Hasson: I want to add a purely economic, practical, and instrumental view to this. Radical Islamic terror groups abound throughout the region, taking advantage of protracted conflicts in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. July 20, 2020. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/covid-19-information-and-. Changes in the dynamics of great power competition in the Middle East might bring about significant changes in the structure of regional camps, which will not necessarily prove helpful for advancing Israels core national security interests. It's The Assad regime in Syria is once more welcomed back into the Arab League in exchange for efforts to reduce Iranian influence and activities on its territory. Iraq and Syria remain theaters of low intensity conflict between Israel and the U.S. on one side and Iran-backed forces on the other; these confrontations are characterized by recurring crises and increasing lethality. 29. August 2019. https://www.unicef.org/mena/sites/unicef.org.mena/files/2019-08/MENA%20. The IDF's 23rd Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, will need to safely and swiftly maneuver through a domestic minefield without entangling the military in politics. The Israel Economy: The First Decade. Mapping the Global Future. National Intelligence Council. Hannah Kosow and Robert Gassner. His writings have been published in a variety of international media outlets, including The Atlantic, Foreign Policy, Jewish Review of Books, and War on the Rocks. Introduction The achievements of the Israeli economy since 1948 have been immense. Fourth, the weight assigned to specific issues reflects the particular viewpoint at the time of publication but the relative weight of issues is liable to shift over time. Therefore, this article refrains from attempts at prophecy but deals instead with thinking about the future. It opens with an analytical framework for scenario development, supplemented by trends impact and horizon scanning. The second section studies the futures of the past, in terms of what we might learn about the pitfalls of future projection and scenario-building from those outlining possible futures for 2020 from years past. Finally, hard-won negotiated assets such as the Abraham Accords or a better deal with Iran might disintegrate quickly because of the complexity and inter-connectivity of regional security problems. One of the most serious challenges Israel has faced over its . Powell / FED decisions in the following months will decide the future of USA & Europe. These steps are facilitated by a popular revolt in Iran that deposed the Islamic Republic and replaced it with a secular nationalist government. The list of potential gamechangers includes developments such as: leadership changes within existing regimes, shifting partnerships/rivalries, internal upheavals leading to regime change, military interventions by global/regional powers into crises, the end of military conflicts and the terms of their conclusion, the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a state or states that did not previously possess them, dramatic technological developments that shift the balance of economic or military power, and natural disasters that inflict major human or infrastructural losses. Economic distress in Jordan results in the overthrow of the Hashemite ruler by Islamist forces, which then leads to increased tensions with Israel and ultimately the abolition of the 1994 peace agreement. MEI welcomes financial donations, but retains sole editorial control over its work and its publications reflect only the authors views. The Middle Eastern regimes incompetent handling of the COVID-19 crisis along with worsening structural economic problems leads to a growing sense of frustration among the populations. In the second half of the decade, Israel capitalizes on the relative weakness of Egypt and the Gulf states in order to expand cooperation with them. The goal of this policy paper is to propose a comprehensive economic strategy for the Israeli economy, backed up by a methodological framework based on the economy's strengths and weakness,. This variable is strongly correlated with (a) the future of competition between the great powers, (b) rivalry among regional powers in MENA, (c) counter-terrorism, and (d) nuclear proliferation. Cairo is also facing intensifying water scarcity, and then, as a result, a food shortage ensues in Egypt and causes the price of basic foodstuffs to rise in nearby countries. Changes in the socio-economic stability of states in the region may redraw the map of regional and even extra-regional alliances. Through the reduction of security cooperation and freezing of military aid, Washington (unsuccessfully) seeks to pressure Cairo to roll back relations with its great power rivals. One of Washingtons key aims in the Middle East is limiting Chinese and (secondarily) Russian influence. 2008. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258510126_Methods_of_Future_an. What we determined as the most important and persistent trends to consider, which appear poised to influence the Middle East over the next decade, are: a) The Decline of Unipolarity: The results of this ongoing global transition from unipolarity to a bipolar (U.S.-China) or multipolar (U.S.-China-Russia) world will include: growing challenges to the existing international system;21 intensification of great power competition and its projection into the MENA region;22 U.S. efforts to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East in favor of the Pivot to Asia; an expanded Chinese footprint around the globe (mainly through commerce and infrastructure projects); and Russian attempts to reestablish itself as a powerbroker in the region. Andrew Curry and Wendy Schultz. 2015. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715000841. Aldar Properties PJSC ('Aldar') published its 2022 Sustainability Report today, showcasing the progress it has made across the four pillars of its sustainability strategy - environment . Even the achievement of optimistic employment goals among sectors with currently low participation rates will not prevent a drop in GDP growth to a historically low level of only 2.3% per year. The U.S. government continues to speak publicly about the ideals of human rights and democracy, including in ways that pertain to the Middle East, but in practice applies minimal pressure on Arab rulers to adopt those principles. In updated projections last month, the Bank of Israel said it forecasts Israel's GDP growth at 6% in 2022, and 3% in 2023, as the country like everywhere continues to grapple with inflation. Coronavirus (COVID-19) After the price collapse in April 2020, petrostates will find themselves dependent on a volatile (at best) oil market that will prove the determining factor for whether or not they will be able to balance their annual budget. February 2007. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228623754_The_current_state_of. Washingtons peace efforts are meant to improve its relations (and Israels) with the Arab and Muslim world but do not amount to much due to the evasive maneuvers of both the Israeli and Palestinian governments. 36. Justin is interested in Israel's startup ecosystem and aims to share his insights learnt from expanding to and managing business in Israel. Thursday, March 26, 2020, Get foreign policy updates from Brookings, Tiomkin School of Economics at Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya, Aaron Institute for Economic Policy at Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya, In Israel, Benny Gantz decides to join with rival Netanyahu, Brookings experts on the implications of COVID-19 for the Middle East and North Africa, Forum on the future of the Federal Home Loan Bank system: Highlights, The American Rescue Plan, two years later: Analyzing local governments efforts at equitable, transformative change. Justin Doebe is the President of Nevelis Media. Daniel Rakov, The Future of Israel's Economy. The COVID-19 crisis strains the already tenuous ability to develop long-term predictions, as even deciphering the present reality remains a challenge and basic assumptions regarding the factors shaping the future have been called into question. The scenarios are exploratory, rather than predictive or normative,20 meaning that they aim to answer the question of what can happen rather than what will or what should. Organisation for Economic, MOPAN Multilateral Organisation Performance Assessment Network, Ensuring a strong, inclusive and sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in Israel. The Fund for Peace. 23. It is often valuable for this reason to get feedback and inputs from a diverse group on scenarios as they are being formulated. How should that influence how policymakers today respond to or prepare for the scenarios? Tehran responds with a symbolic missile attack on Israeli soil, and a Three-Day War between Israel and Hezbollah ensues. Dahlans efforts to regain control of Gaza lead to several rounds of fighting between the PA and Hamas, and with the help of Israel and Egypt, by 2024 Dahlan pressures the Hamas leadership to flee to Turkey. Road Less Traveled: Different Methods, Different Futures. Journal of Future Studies. As for counterterrorism, it has served as a driving force behind American involvement in a variety of theaters including Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq, so the regrouping or decline of jihadist or other transnational militant groups from the region could factor into the level of U.S. engagement in the Middle East. For example, the NICs 2004 report notes that one uncertainty for the future is the Extent to which [Internet] connectivity challenges governments. It is now clear that despite the short period in which social media exclusively enabled the public to organize against regimes, the connectedness and smartness of daily life from iPhones to cashless payment to apps has since evolved into a force multiplier that on balance favors totalitarian governments. Senior economic officials in Israel were quick to . The great powers overtures to pressure Cairo to forfeit its nuclear weapon fail after Iran acquires a nuclear weapon in 2028 (apparently purchased from North Korea) and in 2029 when special security arrangements between Pakistan and Turkey are declared widely interpreted as Islamabad extending its nuclear umbrella to Ankara. Nevertheless, scenarios are an indispensable and creative mechanism that produces what is known as interesting research 9 (that which is innovative and more likely to produce learning), broadens thinking about future possibilities, and helps to prevent group-think. In case of abuse. The four scenarios meet the four benchmarks for scenario development:33 they are plausible, relevant, divergent, and challenging, and are viewed from a singular in this case Israeli perspective. 22. Increasing interest rates and lower stock market valuations will weigh on investment. June 19, 2018. Successful implementation of this approach by the Government of Israel would require four key ingredients: 1) identifying potential developments and trends, 2) assessing their relevance to Israeli national interests, 3) determining the potential array of required responses, 4) and implementing recommendations that leave Israel better prepared for 28. Forecast definition. Long-term and detailed strategic predictions are a thankless task and are often doomed to failure. Laborers from poorer countries in the Arab world are then offered work visas to Saudi Arabia to supplement the foreign workforce and the volume of remittances to countries such as Egypt and Yemen increases. Rising Sea Levels Threaten Egypts Alexandria. VOA News. This scenario demonstrates that a great power vacuum and resulting deterioration of the regional order could be accompanied by opportunities for Israel to diminish significant military threats at a lower cost. After several months of fierce clashes a reconciliation process is initiated under the auspices of the African Union, Russia, and China. Eric Brewer. Deterioration of the regional economy/order might bring opportunities to diminish major military threats to Israel at reduced costs or increase its regional footprint through deeper intra-regional cooperation. While it is true that populism emerged in Latin America, its appeal to those left behind by globalization proved to be global in nature, including unexpectedly though perhaps more importantly in the U.S. The OECD suggests that, scenarios are tools created to have structured conversations and analysis of the challenges and opportunities that the future may bring.10 Kosow and Gassner explain that, scenarios have no claim to reality and therefore do not provide a true knowledge of the future; rather, they merely supply a hypothetical construct of possible futures on the basis of knowledge gained in the present and past a construct which includes, of course, probable, possible and desirable future developments.11. The population has grown from 750,000 at independence to 9.3 million at end 2020, while gross domestic product (GDP) rose from $6.5 billion to $407 billion in 2020 (in 2020 prices and exchange rates). Brun Itai. The Israeli labour market is tight, with a low unemployment rate (3.9% in 2022) and employment above pre-crisis levels, so that the vacancy rate has stabilised at a historically high level towards the end of the year. The swift development of a COVID-19 vaccine and international efforts to produce and distribute it leads to a quick recovery of the global economy along with renewed demand for oil and gas. Futures Thinking Methodologies Options Relevant For Schooling For Tomorrow. Horizon scanning focuses on emergent issues that might gain strength in the future and lead to systemic change. When the talks falter and then implode, the result is a major escalation of fighting between Israel and the Palestinians that then leads to the cutting of diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab states, including longstanding partners Egypt and Jordan. Although we did not consider scenarios of Israels internal development, and instead focused mainly on its external environment, the former may ultimately prove to be the most decisive variable for its future. In fact, the NIC presented many valuable insights that proved prescient about events that would take place years later: the factors leading to the Arab Spring, the non-linear path of globalization, and the decline of al-Qaeda as well as the rise of ISIS. Examples of trends present today that have not changed much since the NIC report was published more than 15 years ago include the power of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system and the strong global commitment to prevent countries in the Middle East from acquiring nuclear weapons (and none have nuclearized since the publication of the report). In the second half of the decade, sporadic violence by Shia militias in Iraq spills over into the Gulf, resulting in attacks on critical infrastructure including oil pumping stations, refineries, and pipelines. Natan Sachs and Kevin Huggard 13. We need to reimagine Israel's economy as a laboratory for integrating high-tech into daily life. Related Content For example, the NIC correctly noted that globalization could lead to the rise of populism and pointed to Latin America as the likely place for that to emerge. But scenarios built only around such an assumption pay insufficient attention to any number of factors that are more representative of continuity and are potentially just as impactful as that which is changing. 7. Accelerating changes in recent years, including massive increases in the amount, variety, and tempo of information available, the rate of technological advances, climate change, and the interconnectivity and interdependencies between distant geographical locations further increase the level of uncertainty regarding the future. Aside from that, Asian stocks are sagging and are not strong at all in 2022 due to China COVID resurgence. Scenario development is one of the most popular methodologies to investigate the future, and various methods have been developed to build and map scenarios.3 The basic concept evolved from business practitioners, with the most famous method being the matrix introduced by Royal Dutch Shell and refined later in Global Business Network (GBN). Further distraction of the U.S. from Middle Eastern issues will provide greater room for Russia and China to maneuver, reduce the military and political constraints on other actors in the region like Turkey and Iran, and potentially allow for the proliferation of nuclear technologies; deeper U.S. involvement may rein in regional struggles and diminish the probability of the appearance of a new nuclear power in the region. The intersection between the two variables produces the following four scenarios: After determining the four scenarios, we have added some meat to the skeletal scenarios through backcasting. During this period, he was employed primarily in research and analysis missions, and dealt with the most important strategic and operational challenges in front of the IDF and the Israeli government, in almost every geographical area of interest to the State of Israel. At the same time, Israel's economy -- in which the jobless rate fell below 8% in April and inflation stands at 0.8% -- is losing close to 200 million shekels ($61 million) a day from a conflict . Mapping the Global Future,12 which was published in 2004 as part of the 2020 Project by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), was used as a case study. The poverty rate is projected to decline to 26.7% in 2022, and then to further gradually decrease to 26.1% by 2024. In addition, it might be worthwhile to broaden the horizons of this research by considering the impact of possible counter-trends to some of the key trends mentioned above, for example the reversal of the shift toward multipolarity and a return to a more unipolar world. Without reforms to increase the productivity growth rate, Israels relative GDP per capita is expected to deteriorate. A goal, according to Israel Export Institute chairperson Ayelet Nahmias-Verbin, is to connect the economy of the Eastern Mediterranean - Israel, Greece, Egypt, and Turkey - with the economy of the Western Mediterranean - Morocco. Irans reformists then win a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections of 2024, which facilitates the signing of a new and more comprehensive nuclear agreement the following year. It seems it might grow a bit slower than forecasted, but it'll still be pretty good. Blocs that have sought to compete include: the Iran-led radical Shia coalition, the Turkey-Qatar Islamist-oriented alliance, and the United Arab Emirates-Saudi Arabia status-quo axis. Economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter, with GDP expanding 5.8% in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR) (Q3: +2.1% SAAR). The widespread public criticism of the regime caused the military to announce President al-Sisis resignation, beginning a long period of political unrest throughout the country. Schoemaker and George S. Day. Tuesday, March 3, 2020 Consumer spending has come to a crawl and predictions show that the Israeli economy will not hit the 3% growth that was predicted for 2023 despite boosts in the economy through higher consumer. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is an independent, non-partisan, non-for-profit, educational organization. Connor Dilleen. Please contact us in case of abuse. Due to U.S. pressure, Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece, and Egypt are pushed into starting construction on a network of gas pipelines to Turkey, from where the gas will then be transported to Europe. Other than supplying Israel's domestic natural gas demand, the export market for natural gas produced in Israel is growing significantly. Jonas Svava Iversen. The aim of examining futures of the past is certainly not to point out what some might view as errors. The current state of scenario development: An overview of techniques. Foresight 9 (1). By 2025, Dahlan brings U.S. and Emirati pressure to bear on Israel to promote a peace agreement. It only begins to recover slowly in early 2023, and energy prices are expected to remain lower than 2019 levels for the foreseeable future. This leads to growing tensions between Russia and Turkey and rising American support for Ankara as a counterweight to Russian influence in the Middle East. Middle East Economies: Dim Light at the End of the Tunnel. Institute for National Security Studies. COVID-19, Information, and the Deep Structure of the International System. The Cipher Brief. GDP growth is projected to moderate from a strong 6.3% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024. The Shia minority in the Gulf states are incited by Iranian propaganda directed at them, and Yemens Houthis conduct frequent strikes targeting Gulf states infrastructure with advanced missiles and UAVs. If they crash the economy and bring it to the ground, these i**ots will Nicolae Sptaru on LinkedIn: Powell / FED decisions in the following months will decide the future of Given the tendency to underestimate continuity, in moments when radical change feels imminent it is worth recalling that much often remains the same over time. It has also cancelled the contract for Russia to build it nuclear reactors. The forecast aims at calculating or predicting (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data.2 But the distant future is hardly a singular event. 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